Just So Many Summers, Babe

There’re just so many summers, babe. And just so many springs.

Don Henley’s lyrics came to me early in the 1993 season. Too early. 1993 wasn’t, sadly, the last worthless season that we’d have to spend, but damned if it didn’t seem the baseball summer to which we looked forward all winter went kaput before it could begin. The Mets were 12-25 after 37 games, 15 behind the 1st place Phillies, with the Wild Card a year from existence. The season loomed as worthless because the season loomed as over.

The looming was correct. 1993 contained no hint of competitiveness hidden away as a nice surprise for later. When the ’93 Mets limped to the halfway point of their schedule, they were 25-56, 28½ from the top of their division. They would finish 59-103, a dead-on, balls accurate 38 games out. They were an undisputed 7th place club the only year a National League East club could be a 7th place club. The Mets had been a 10th place club when that option was available, a 6th place club when 6th place represented bottom and, once realignment kicked in, they would on accursed occasion find their way to 5th place in a 5-team division.

Years like those, the ones when not even false hope materializes, are the worst. Those are the years when there is nothing except the mere act of baseball in which to invest your faith, no matter how often you are told or tell yourself You Gotta Believe. You can only Believe so much so often, and years like 1993 strain credulity let alone plausibility for even the most faithful among us.

The more relevant and practical question is can you Believe in a team that is positioned where the current Mets are? It’s a multipart question with answers that don’t necessarily jibe with one another.

1) Are the 2009 Mets at the halfway point of their season a plausible contender? Based on the numbers — 39 wins, 42 losses, tied for 3rd place in the N.L. East, 4 games out; tied for 8th place in the Wild Card stakes, 5 games out — their plausibility is solid. If you didn’t know anything else besides those numbers, you couldn’t count them out.

2) Are the Mets a viable contender? Do they have a realistic chance beyond the concept of mathematically alive?

You may derive your own conclusions from having observed the first 81 games of the 2009 season, but precedent would suggest they have only so much contention left in them. While it’s not inconceivable they could put a rush on and make the 2nd half of 2009 a thrilling dash to the wire, it seems more likely that their moment will come and go well short of the 162nd game of their schedule…if it hasn’t come and gone already.

Every edition of the Mets is different (even if it sometimes seems as if we’re perpetually screening Groundhog Day) just as every season, every opponent, every player and every factor is different. There is nothing dependably scientific about looking where the Mets have been through the halfway points of their years prior to 2009 and drawing conclusions regarding what will happen next. Strictly speaking, they represent a few dozen distinct episodes, and any commonalities uncovered could very well be filed under coincidence.

That said, we are at the exact halfway point of the season. For fun or maybe edification, let’s see what we can make of Met precedent by examining what they’ve been up to in the middle of previous seasons, specifically seasons when they arrived at the halfway point in circumstances that suggested they still had, at the very least, a chance in hell of winning something.

In 21 seasons, the Mets have reached the halfway point of their schedule with a winning record. Six times they’ve made the playoffs.

1969

1st Half: 47-34, 3½ GB, 2nd place

2nd Half: 53-28, 1st by 8 games

1986

1st Half: 56-25, 10½ ahead, 1st place

2nd Half: 52-29, 1st by 21½ games

1988

1st Half: 52-29, 7½ ahead, 1st place

2nd Half: 48-31, 1st by 15 games

1999

1st Half: 45-36, 5 GB, 2nd place; 1½ GB, 2nd for Wild Card

2nd Half: 52-30, 1st for Wild Card by 1 game

2000

1st Half: 46-35, 3 GB, 2nd place; ½ ahead for Wild Card

2nd Half: 48-33, 1st for Wild Card by 8 games

2006

1st Half: 48-33, 11 ahead, 1st place

2nd Half: 49-32, 1st by 12 games

Postseason fortunes aside, the most you can ask for out of a second half is a ticket to more baseball. For 6 of the 21 Mets teams that reached the halfway point of their schedules with a winning record, mission accomplished.

The next most you can ask for is for your team to keep winning and to contend while doing so. Of the 15 times the Mets have reached the halfway point of their schedule with a winning record en route to not making the playoffs, they finished the season with a winning record 13 times. Some winning records yielded a longer, more satisfying run than others.

1970

1st Half: 45-36, ½ ahead, 1st place

2nd Half 38-43, 6 GB, 2nd place

The defending champions were still viable for another miracle after 155 games, 2 out in 2nd in a mushy N.L. East. They had a 3-game series ahead with the first-place Pirates. Avast, matey! as we’d find ourselves hearing continually at the confluence of the Allegheny and Monongahela. The Mets entered spanking new Three Rivers Stadium and got spanked, swept and eliminated in a weekend’s time.

1971

1st Half: 46-35, 5½ GB, 2nd place

2nd Half: 37-44, 14 GB, T-3rd Place

The Mets had begun to stumble after 74 games when they were only 2 out. Their viability and plausibility commenced to crumble after a 1-11 stretch left them 10 behind the surging Pirates after 86 games.

1972

1st Half: 45-33, 3½ GB, 2nd place

2nd Half: 38-40, 13½ GB, 3rd place

Injuries and the resulting offensive ineptitude hamstrung the Mets after a dynamic start, but they hung in as viable in this strike-shortened season clear through to their 90th game (5½ behind 1st place Pittsburgh after the two split a doubleheader); they would be reasonably plausible until their 98th game when they sat 6½ back. From there they lost ground and hope quickly.

1975

1st Half: 43-38, 7 GB, 3rd place

2nd Half: 39-42, 10½ GB, T-3rd Place

It appeared a full-fledged move was being made in the 136th game of the season when the Mets beat those first-place Bucs and pulled within 4 lengths of the top spot. Alas, by their 142nd game, they were 9 games out and essentially finished.

1976

1st Half: 43-38, 12½ GB, 3rd place

2nd Half: 43-38, 15 GB, 3rd place

Decent record, but no chance whatsoever as the Phillies zoomed to 30 games over before the Bicentennial. The Mets weren’t remotely plausible after 48 games.

1984

1st Half: 47-34, ½ ahead, 1st place

2nd Half: 43-38, 6½ GB, 2nd place

The surprising Mets’ viability peaked in their 118th game when they edged within 1½ of the 1st place Cubs. From there, the separation between unforeseen contenders was on, though the dreamers among us thought the spirit of ’69 might inhabit two September series with Chicago. Six back after 143 games, however, was as deja as our vu would get.

1985

1st Half: 46-35, 2½ GB, 2nd place

2nd Half: 52-29, 3 GB, 2nd place

The best Mets team to not make the postseason fell short despite a memorable and spectacular September. The ’85 Mets were at their most viable after 138 games, holding a 1-game lead over St. Louis, having just taken two of three from their bitter rivals. The Mets, however, stumbled for the next two weeks while the Redbirds took wing, but boy were the Mets plausible after winning the first two games of a three-game series in St. Louis that brought them to within 1 of the lead after 158 games. It was a short albeit regrettable roll downhill from there. Still, a duel for the ages.

1987

1st Half: 43-38, 8 GB, 2nd place

2nd Half: 49-32, 3 GB, 2nd place

As might-have-been a year as any the Mets have ever played, their viability crested after 139 games plus 8-2/3 innings. The Mets, however, didn’t die with Terry Pendleton’s infamous home run. They remained stone plausible until Luis Aguayo ended their 159th game. But in retrospect, those last few weeks were slow torture in advance of the doffing of their crown.

1989

1st Half: 42-39, 3½ GB, 4th place

2nd Half: 45-36, 6 GB, 2nd place

The Met surge all anticipated carried them within 2½ of the lead after their 122nd game. The next day brought a mini-Pendleton via the unlikely home run bat of Willie Randolph. General divisional mediocrity would keep the Mets plausible (the very same 2½ out) as late as their 140th game, but their inevitable disintegration took hold from there.

1990

1st Half: 48-33, 2 GB, 2nd place

2nd Half: 43-38, 4 GB, 2nd place

Dubious distinction: the ’90 Mets had the best halfway mark in franchise history to not result in a playoff spot. In 1st after 132 games, clinging to a ½-game deficit as late as their 147th game, the unremarkableness of their September roster (particularly in contrast to the young, vibrant Pirates) finally caught up to the team.

1997

1st Half: 45-36, 7½ GB, 4th place; 3 GB, 3rd for Wild Card

2nd Half: 43-38, 13 GB, 2nd place; 4 GB, T-2nd for Wild Card

A brave new world, so to speak, as the Mets legitimately contend for a playoff spot that doesn’t involve 1st place. The Wild Card is only 2 games from their grasp after the Met have played 114 games, but it begins to slip from there. They’re still within dreaming distance after 149 games (5 out midway through a doubleheader, with a 4-game set against WC leader Florida a few days away), but it never meshes any better than that for those gritty, gutty 1997 Mets.

1998

1st Half: 44-37, 10½ GB, 2nd place; 4 GB, 2nd for Wild Card

2nd Half: 44-37, 18 GB, 2nd place, 1½ GB, 3rd for Wild Card

Jesus. Seriously — Jesus H. Christ. The Mets led the Wild Card derby by 1 length after they had played 157 games. After 161 games, they were still alive, trailing by 1; a Mets win, combined with Cub and Giant losses, would have necessitated a round robin play-in for the final National League playoff berth. The Cubs lost. The Giants lost. Guess who else lost. Jesus. Seriously — Jesus H. Christ.

2007

1st Half: 46-35, 4 ahead, 1st place

2nd Half: 42-39, 1 GB, 2nd place; 1½ GB, 3rd for Wild Card

Recent and notorious enough so we need not delve deeply into details, except to say the Mets were viable and plausible through 161 games, but the moment the 162nd game began, they were toast. Not much noted in real time was they somehow shredded their Wild Card safety net on their merry way to Collapse. The 2007 Mets’ legendary 7-game lead on the Phillies, established after 145 games, was seemingly cushioned by a 4½-game lead on the Padres for best 2nd-place record should it come to that. Of course it would never come to that…

The sole exceptions to maintaining a winning record beyond the halfway point were 1991, when a 47-34 start (2nd place, 2½ behind the Pirates) was obliterated by a 30-50 finish, and 2004, when the evanescent promise of 41-40 (2nd place, 3 behind the Phillies) was snowed under by a 30-51 avalanche of awfulness.

• The ’91 team remained plausible (5½ out) until embarking on an 11-game losing streak after their 107th game.

• The ’04 Mets, at 59-62, could dream of making a charge for the Wild Card as late as their 121st game when they sat within 7 games of the consolation prize; the divisional fantasy, however, blew up by their 104th game as an Atlanta sweep left them 9 out and reeling (despite having just reinforced their ranks by trading for Victor Zambrano and Kris Benson).

In 15 seasons, including the one in progress, the Mets have reached the halfway point of their schedule with a losing record that was within a net 6 games of a winning record. Only once among the 14 whose outcome we know for certain did they reach the playoffs.

1973

1st Half: 35-46, 12 GB, 6th place

2nd Half: 47-33, 1st by 1½ games

1973, of course, is the reason we are forced to consider our current “contenders” seriously. The ’73 Mets owned a record four games worse than the ’09 Mets. The ’73 Mets had 5 teams in front of them in their division. The ’73 Mets had to look up a double-digit deficit periscope to see 1st place. The ’73 Mets were bruised and battered, both physically and psychologically.

The ’73 Mets overcame all that. You Gotta Believe, you may have heard. If we could Believe in the ’73 Mets, why shouldn’t we take the same tack right here, right now 36 years later?

We could — and by 1973-instilled reflex, some of us will. But it’s worth exploring, for historical completeness and perspective, how 1973 stands as the exception, not the rule. To do so, let’s take a look at the other 13 seasons in which the Mets, à la 1973, won at least 35 of their first 81 games yet did not Believe their way into the postseason.

1966: 35-46, 16 GB, 9th place

Included here as a statistical courtesy. Not finishing 10th and not losing 100 games was all anyone could have asked for in the franchise’s fifth season. Those requests (66-95, 9th place) were fulfilled. Ah, simpler times.

1968: 38-43, 13½ GB, 9th place

Though the Mets were clearly emerging from their primordial ooze by then, it is staggering to think a pre-1969 team finished its first half with a better record than an eventual pennant winner. Yet it would actually take 129 games for the ’73 team to pass the noncontending ’68 team’s won-lost pace for good. In context, it speaks volumes for how much the 1968 Mets were improved under Gil Hodges, how poorly their successors would be staggering under Yogi Berra a half-decade later and how plain lousy the N.L. East of 1973 performed from bottom to top.

1974: 35-46, 8 GB, 6th place

What a difference a month makes. The dismal ’74 Mets (71-91) picked up where the ’73 Mets (82-79) left off before September 1973 arrived. Their plausible closeness to first place (7 out after 101 games) expired as soon as the Pirates and Cardinals awoke.

1980: 39-42, 6 GB, 4th place

The ’80 club had the same midway mark as the ’09 Mets do. But boy was this fan base elated to be 3 games under .500 with half a season to go. The Magic Is Back squad was never as viable as some of us wished to imagine but they were undeniably plausible (56-57, 7½ GB) after 113 games. From there, they thudded home (11-38), but for those who experienced their first taste of contention since 1975, the Magic lives on.

1982: 38-43, 7½ GB, 5th place

The record will show the ’82 Mets were only 3 out, in 3rd place, after 64 games, but a speedy Nestea plunge was already underway by the halfway mark. They finished 65-97 on the, uh, strength of a 15-game losing streak in August. The Magic was gone.

1992: 38-43, 6 GB, 5th place

As recently noted, ’92 is the less obvious, less happy precedent for 2009. The division was a muddle and the Mets were injured, yet they were still within two games of .500 and 5½ out of first after 104 games. The division unmuddled before the Mets — finishing 21-37 — felt any better.

1994: 36-45, 15 GB, 3rd place; 13 GB, 8th for Wild Card

This season had a mildly encouraging first half (particularly as measured against the toxic year that preceded it), but its second half was steamrolled by the mother of all baseball strikes, making 1994 the most moot of all examples. It’s a safe guess to venture that the Mets weren’t going anywhere in either the downsized 5-team division or the newfangled 11-team Wild Card race, yet their mini-boost in fortunes (22-15 in their final 37 en route to a truncated 55-58) lifted the spirits of every Mets fan who was paying rapt attention that July and early August…as all 12 of us who were doing so can attest.

1996: 37-44, 14 GB, 4th place; 10 GB, 9th for Wild Card

The Wild Card made its first, fleeting appearance on the Mets fan radar that July when a 17-10 spurt brought the team, at the 94-game mark, to within 4½ of the WC-leading Expos as Montreal came to Shea for a 4-game series that at least one delusional future blogger was certain was the showdown that would turn everything around. The Mets lost 3 of 4 and finished ’96 on a 25-43 wheeze. But oh, those 20 minutes when I worked myself into a frenzy…

2001: 35-46, 11 GB, 4th place; 10 GB, 10th for Wild Card

The 2001 Mets were as bad as the 1973 Mets at the halfway point, which seems appropriate because the “You Gotta Believe” precedent — and perhaps the befuddlement that this team was less than a year removed from the World Series — was all there was to hang one’s Mets hopes on. The ’01 Mets played as sluggishly and stupidly as the ’09 Mets have, if such a depth could be fathomed to have been previously plumbed. Their towel was thrown in by collective agreement long before they sunk to 54-68, 13½ from 1st; they were even further from the Wild Card. Then, maybe because nobody with Piazza, Alfonzo, Leiter, et al could be that bad for that long, a hot streak ensued. The Mets would go 25-6, which, in a tepid division, pushed them into contention. After 153 games, the Mets were improbably plausible: 3 games back with a 3-game series at first-place Atlanta about to unfold. It didn’t work out, which was doubly tough to take amid the unlikely hopes they raised in New York in September 2001, but it did come close to providing secondary evidence that “You Gotta Believe” deserves to be taken seriously — as do, one must underscore, the first 122 games of any season. (The 2001 Mets’ Pythagorean won-lost record, which reflects runs scored vs. runs allowed, indicates they “should” have been a 73-89 club, which validates the conventional wisdom that they were hopeless all along.)

2002: 40-41, 11½ GB, 4th place; 8 GB, 6th for Wild Card

In a decade that has been dense with disappointments, the 2002 Mets may stand as the biggest all-around letdown of these last 10 years. This team was supposedly reloaded for bear in the offseason. They instead revealed themselves as chronically outgunned. As late as the 115th game of the year, however, the Mets managed plausibility: 1 game over .500, 6½ off the Wild Card pace. Then they went out and lost their next 12. Year over, even if the embarrassment would endure for quite a while.

2003: 35-46, 16½ GB, 5th place; 11 GB, 11th for Wild Card

Never a factor in the division, never a factor for the Wild Card. The 2003 Mets (66-95) were what you’d expect to happen when you start 35-46, reminding us yet again how astounding it is that the ’73 Mets used the exact same halfway record as a launching pad to a pennant.

2005: 40-41, 10 GB, 5th place; 4½ GB, 5th for Wild Card

An inconsistent team in a fluid year in a scuffling division. The Washington Nationals, in case you’ve forgotten, held a comfortable 1st place lead at the halfway point. That didn’t last, even if the 2005 Mets’ maddening ways persisted. Early July towel-throwing was in vogue then, too, but so was grabbing the linen (along with the Mets’ chances) back from the abyss when deemed appropriate. In their 131st game, the Mets crept to within 1 game of the Wild Card lead; they seemed poised to tie the WC frontrunners, the Phillies, the next night as they went up 2-0 before the whole thing unraveled in a hurry. The Mets, who were once 68-60, careened in a blink to 71-75 — yet finished 83-79. Not an easy season to get a handle on, definitely an argument for locking the linen closet while the slightest chance to soak up champagne still exists.

2008: 40-41, 3 GB, 3rd place; 6 GB, 5th for Wild Card

Because the 2008 Mets ended their season in as ignominious a fashion as the 2007 Mets had, it’s already difficult to recall that theirs was a sub-.500 outfit (43-44) through 87 games. But it was in the 87th game that the 2008 Mets took flight by beginning a 10-game winning streak. The malaise of the Randolph era was over, the boom times under Jerry Manuel were in full bloom. A threadbare bullpen and a tendency to waste leadoff triples ultimately doomed them, but not until they cleared 161 games tied for the Wild Card.

Some people will never be sated by any season that doesn’t involve a world championship. Some will accept the playoffs as payoff for devoting as much fandom to their team as they do. Others can derive happiness from a race well run. Others just want to believe their Believing wasn’t for naught, that something not worthless was in progress at some point across a 162-game slog. And though it’s difficult to understand in an endeavor measured by wins and losses, some people are just thrilled that the Mets play baseball almost every day from early April to early October.

I don’t know what camp you fall in, just as I don’t know whether the 2009 Mets are any longer viable as contenders. My take, based on no more than my powers of observation well-honed over 81 games, is we are in more for frustration than elation pending an unforeseen upgrade in fundamental baseball skills and the unknown recuperative powers of at least a half-dozen individuals. It would seem delusional to assert the Mets are on the brink of great things. It’s plausible, however, to project the Mets might have a great week while the Phillies and Marlins struggle. That would land them in 1st place by the All-Star Break. It’s also plausible to forecast the Mets having a dreadful week while their competition flourishes, thereby dropping them as many as 10½ games out. With 81 games to go, much is plausible where the New York Mets are concerned. Their viability from here until the last Sunday of the season, however, would seem to be hanging precariously — and I’m not sold on their plausibility lasting indefinitely

But there’re just so many summers, babe. And just so many springs. I can’t imagine not wanting to attempt to enjoy, to the best of my Mets fan abilities, however much of the ride remains, no matter how dark, no matter how bumpy, no matter how un-Believe-able the ride shapes up as from here.

Half a season and an indeterminate amount of hope left. But the mere act of baseball continues. Let’s Go Mets.

Faith and Fear in Flushing: An Intense Personal History of the New York Mets is available from Amazon, Barnes & Noble or a bookstore near you. Keep in touch and join the discussion on Facebook.