Statgeek dream site Baseball Prospectus recalculates the playoff odds after every game. Using some kind of amazing stats, they simulate the rest of the baseball season a million times, and tell you what percentage of the time each team winds up winning, taking the wild card, or finishing out of the money.
According to BP, that three-game sweep at the hands of Rollins and Utley and Co. dropped the Mets' odds of winning the National League East from 99.46215% to 97.11782%. Overall odds of making the playoffs dropped from 99.80080% to 98.95142%.
I don't know anything about math, but right now I could not find math more comforting. It's obvious that BP's calculations are the stuff of sweet, irreproachable science.
Sure, if the Phils could play us every game from now on, that 2.88318% chance would go up approximately 50-fold. But the Phils have to play other teams, against which their bullpen turns to mush. I like our chances. Of course, I have to like our chances: The alternative is that I throw myself into the Thames, which would mean lots of paperwork for nice British people and members of the American consulate. Funny thing is I went off to London fuming that the Mets would clinch while I was away. That'll teach me.
No substantive report from London today: Spent most of it in meetings, where somehow no one was wearing a WRIGHT 5 shirt, and at a dinner. The British cannot make a steak to save their lives — they cut it across the grain or something, so it's like chewing a leather strap. (And I gave them two chances today, mostly so I could gobble down Bearnaise sauce.) And their Dr. Pepper inexplicably tastes like ditchwater. On the other hand, they excel at all pastry-related foodstuffs.
I'm watching MLB.TV even though the chances I'll make it until last out around 3 a.m. are low. (Lotsa wine.) I can't get SNY — instead, it's MASN. The color guy sounded very familiar — I was briefly disoriented until I realized it was Don Sutton, for years the voice of smug superiority with the Braves. Extrapolating from an incredibly brief sample, as is my God-given right as a slightly drunk blogger, I will say that Sutton is a bitter, bitter man. He spent a good deal of time mocking the Mets' home record, and invited Met fans out to some event to meet Jesus Flores, since he's one of ours. You shut up, Don Sutton!
Predictably, I love Don Sutton. He always gave Reeder, and the Mets in general, a lot of love in the late 90s. His SON I can't stand, though.
This game is making me suicidal. Especially as the Phillies have a 6-0 lead in the 4th.
Dr Pepper is owned by Cadbury Schweppes, a British enterprise, but is not considered to travel well. A purely American phenomenon.
I could never find Dr Pepper when I lived there. The closest we got was Vimto, which is appalling. There was also no such thing as “iced tea.” The very idea was quite literally foreign to them. I used to have to lug Snapple home with me.
(Breathe, Laurie… just talk about beverages, that will make everything seem OK. Just pretend this game isn't really happening, and the Mets aren't doing their Bad News Bears impression AGAIN…)
I had the worst steak of my entire life the last time I was in the UK. It reminded me of the salisbury steak my grade school used to make, but it was much worse. If I had eaten my shoe THAT night, I would have been better off. ;) You have my deepest sympathy.
Chance of winning division: 89.40887%
Chance of making playoffs: 95.44467%
Am flying to Vienna at 1130 pm NY time, which is 430 am here. So no game for me. Just as well.
Please let me wake up and they've won, please let me wake up and they've won….
Oh oh- 88 % and falling………………………..